0133 GMT July 23, 2018
"There is a lot of [urea] cargo, but no demand. We see some adjustment in prices from the beginning of next week if India doesn't announce a tender," said an international trader, reported ICIS.
If India finds a resolution to payment issues with Iran, it will be business as usual and even likely to be negative for pricing.
However, if India was unable to buy Iranian urea because of pressure from the US, this would have a major bullish impact on international prices.
"Right now there is a possibility market could collapse, there is no demand. But if Iran does not feature in the Indian tender, the market will go up, and it will go up in a big way. Let's see, Indians are still evaluating," said an Asian trader.
India buys around 1.6 million tons of urea annually from Iran. If there is no resolution with Iran, the country would have to look at other origins who are bound to price their tons higher, given the high volume involved.
As of now, there is no clarity over the Indian and Iranian situation.
New Delhi is still looking at ways to pay Iran for its urea while at the same time maintaining its ties with the US.
There has been a lot of market talk about the Indian tender, but with ports continuing to be saturated with material and the Iranian issue yet to be resolved, it is not clear if the tender will come in the next week as expected.