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Mon, May 05, 2008

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Morales, Military Worry About Santa Cruz Vote
Obama Wins Guam
Brown Facing Tough Questions
Mainland Welcomes Torch
Japan, China Have Long-Range Goals

Morales, Military Worry About Santa Cruz Vote
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Passers-by walk next to a poster against the May 4 autonomy referendum in Santa Cruz in Bolivia on May 3.
Voters in Bolivia’s largest state were likely to pass a sweeping autonomy referendum Sunday, dealing a blow to the country’s leftist president and deepening an entrenched political conflict, reported AP.
Santa Cruz state leaders were pushing the referendum in a bid to keep a bigger slice of the state’s key natural gas revenues, while also protecting their soy plantations and cattle ranches from President Evo Morales’ plan to redistribute land to the poor.
Morales says that he needs a strong central government to spread Santa Cruz’ wealth to the rest of South America’s poorest country.
But both sides spoke calmly in the run up to Sunday’s election despite regional divisions that have split Bolivia for years.
Morales told The Associated Press Friday that he would exercise patience and possibly address some of the autonomy issues in his proposed constitution.
Santa Cruz Gov. Ruben Costas emphasized that Sunday’s referendum is but one step. Three more eastern lowland states--Beni, Pando, and Tarija--hold autonomy votes in June. And no one is clear what autonomy would look like.
The ambitious autonomy statutes up for approval Sunday would create local powers such as a state legislature and police force, which currently do not exist separate from the central government.
But Morales takes particular issue with the few clauses that bear the distinct ring of nationhood: complete control over land distribution and the right to sign international treaties, among others.
Santa Cruz leaders insist that they have no intention of seceding.
But support for some form of local rule runs high in the state’s namesake capital. Pro-autonomy graffiti blankets the city’s walls, and Santa Cruz’ green-and-white flag flutter from cars and shop windows all over town.
Local polls show the referendum drawing as much as 70 percent support going into election day.

Protests
In the meantime, protesters blocked highways in eastern Bolivia with burning tires and mounds of dirt late on Saturday to protest a controversial autonomy referendum in gas-rich Santa Cruz, reported Reuters.
Reuters photographers said roads had been blocked leading into the communities of San Julian, Villa Paraiso, Cuatro Canadas and Los Angeles and residents had pledged not to allow anybody to vote in the Sunday referendum.
Earlier, peasant farmers in the Yapacani district blocked highways to prevent local authorities from setting up polling stations.
The autonomy referendum in Santa Cruz is splitting the country between its poor western highlands, loyal to leftist President Evo Morales, and the wealthy, conservative eastern lowlands.
Crucenos, as Santa Cruz residents call themselves, are voting on statutes to win more control over bountiful gas reserves, farmlands and tax and justice systems. The government of leftist President Evo Morales says the referendum is illegal and tantamount to a vote to separate.
Many Bolivians see the referendum as a vote for or against Morales, the nation’s first indigenous president and a champion of Indian rights.

Warning
Meanwhile, Bolivia’s military warned Saturday that a contested autonomy vote in the prosperous Santa Cruz province was a threat to its territorial integrity, raising tensions a day before the poll.
“We cannot dismiss that a serious danger exists, a threat to the territorial integrity“ of Bolivia and “urgently demand a process of dialogue,“ the permanent secretary of the Supreme National Defense Council, Mario Ayala Ferrufino, told reporters in La Paz.
He said the vote could raise “serious consequences for the unity of the country that are in total contradiction“ with the constitution, according to the Erbol news agency.
The declaration heightens the stakes of Sunday’s vote in opposition-controlled Santa Cruz, which many fear could trigger widespread violence, possibly even military intervention.

Obama Wins Guam
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Democrat Barack Obama beat rival Hillary Clinton by just seven votes in Guam’s nominating contest after record numbers of residents voted in the tiny US territory’s primary, Reuters cited officials as saying on Sunday.
Results after more than 12 hours of manual counting showed Obama took 2,264 votes to 2,257 for Clinton. In the last Democratic primary in 2004 only 1,500 people took part.
“Clearly, both of them are quite popular and we should celebrate that,“ Josh Tenorio, Obama’s campaign manager on the territory told Reuters.
With only four votes at the Democratic convention at stake, the contest on Guam, a Pacific island more than 20 hours by plane from Washington, will barely register in the protracted duel for the party’s presidential ticket.
Neither candidate made it to Guam--instead both called into radio stations to campaign--and many Americans have never even heard of it, but some islanders were thrilled to finally be in the spotlight.

Brown Facing Tough Questions
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s leadership was thrown into question Saturday after his ruling Labour party suffered a local election drubbing capped by the loss of the prize of London mayor, AFP said.
As Boris Johnson, from the main opposition Conservative Party, took plaudits for ousting maverick left-winger Ken Livingstone in the capital, senior Labour figures were assessing their worst local poll showing in 40 years.
The loss of more than 300 council seats across England and Wales, including in traditional Labour heartlands, came in Brown’s first test at the ballot box since he took over from Tony Blair in June.
The British media called it a “May Day Massacre“ for Labour and said Brown faced an uphill battle to stave off the Tories ahead of general elections which must take place by mid-2010.
The loss in London--seen as a proxy vote between Brown and Tory leader David Cameron--epitomized the scale of the defeat for the government, amid predictions that it would act as a springboard for further Tory gains.

Mainland Welcomes Torch
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Sweating, cheering Chinese stood on their chairs and waved flags as the Olympic torch relay finally started its mainland leg Sunday on the tropical island of Hainan--the first stop in what is expected to be a peaceful three-month journey to Beijing.
Protests followed the torch overseas, but organizers and ordinary Chinese in the seaside resort of Sanya promised a trouble-free national tour that will wind through every Chinese province and region before arriving in Beijing before the Olympics start on Aug. 8. According to AP, some Chinese, including the torch bearers, seemed to be relieved that the torch was safely home.
“Being Chinese, it’s not easy,“ said Zhang Chaoyang, the CEO of major Internet portal Sohu.com, during a press conference after the relay started. He criticized the Western media’s recent coverage of China and of the international leg of the relay, which was marked by protests against China’s policies and its treatment of Tibetans.

Japan, China Have Long-Range Goals
Ten years after a disastrous visit to Japan by China’s top leader dominated by their bitter wartime past, Beijing and Tokyo are keen to avoid a rerun that would risk damage to the deep economic ties between the Asian rivals, Reuters reported.
Chinese President Hu Jintao will retrace some of predecessor Jiang Zemin’s steps while in Japan, dining at the Imperial Palace and speaking to students at Tokyo’s Waseda University a day after his Wednesday summit with Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda.
But few expect the sort of pointed lectures on Japan’s 1931-1945 invasion and occupation of China that Jiang delivered at a state banquet hosted by Emperor Akihito, in his own speech at Waseda and during his only news conference in Tokyo.
The two countries “have gone through a very difficult 10 years and have realized that abusing history for short-term diplomatic and political gains has its costs,“ said Andrew Horvat, a professor at Tokyo Keizai University. “I think they have learned that.“
Arriving in Japan not long after Tokyo had apologized to South Korea for its 1910-1945 colonization of the peninsula, Jiang had sought an apology for China.

Hu Hopefull
Chinese President Hu Jintao said Sunday he hoped talks with envoys of Tibet’s exiled leader the Dalai Lama will achieve “positive results,“ according to an interview with Japanese media.

WorldCol3
Medvedev Faces Knotty Challenges
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Russia’s new president, Dmitry Medvedev, is stepping into the vortex of the superpowers’ race for global pre-eminence, AP said. Here are some of the challenges he faces:

NATO & Missiles
NATO’s readiness to give Georgia and Ukraine eventual membership has exacerbated Kremlin suspicions that the West’s goal is to surround and weaken Russia. Lately tensions have escalated along Russia’s southern borders, especially with Georgia, with Russia vowing to send more troops to confront what it calls Georgian aggression. Russia is also resisting US plans to install missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic. The US says it’s protection against “the threat, chiefly from Iran, of a nuclear strike. Russia says it will upset the current nuclear balance of forces“.

Democracy & Human Rights
Russia’s relations with Europe and the US have soured significantly over outgoing President Vladimir Putin’s rollback of democracy and the country’s flawed record on human rights. That has limited Western investment.
Meaningful reforms, however, could threaten the Kremlin’s near-monopoly on power. Medvedev will have to try to persuade the West that reforms are under way, but will be under pressure inside Russia to maintain the status quo.

United States
Putin had warm personal relations with President George W. Bush, despite sharp policy differences. Medvedev gets a cooler reception from the next US administration and more pressure on democracy and human rights.

European Union
The EU and Russia are committed to forging a “strategic partnership’’ and expanding trade, but EU members worry about Russia’s record on human rights and democracy. EU member Lithuania insists that before an EU-wide pact is agreed, Russia should repair ties with its neighbors, including Georgia, Ukraine and Lithuania.

WTO
Russia is the world’s largest economy still outside the World Trade Organization. It may be closer than ever to its goal of membership, but still faces formidable obstacles--concern over its tariff on timber exports and a threat by WTO member Georgia to veto Russian membership because of the current tensions.

Energy
Russia has used its growing control of European energy supplies to exercise political influence. But experts warn the natural gas is running out, and may become a less useful diplomatic lever for Medvedev.

China
After a history of conflict with Beijing in the Soviet era, the Kremlin is quietly disturbed by China’s growing clout. China is potentially a huge customer for Russian energy, but it is also an economic and political rival in Central Asia, historically Russia’s backyard.