Of the many missteps associated with the war in Iraq, none was more costly than the US government’s failure to grasp what was likely to happen when we went into Iraq in 2003. Now, the challenge is to understand what is likely to happen when we get out.
Despite the Bush administration’s stay-the-course posture, and the roughly even chance that the next president will continue that course, at some point in the not-too-distant future our massive and unsustainable troop presence of 160,000 will be drawn down. Whatever military planning might be going on about how to withdraw, about what reduced level of force will ensure the Iraqi government’s survival, and about how Iraqi insurgents might react, that planning is not being discussed openly with the Congress and the American public as it should be.
Though secrecy in contingency planning is a military axiom, excluding the public from the entire process of looking ahead and testing the possible results of various changes in US military posture amounts to a repetition of the mistake that has cost us so dearly.

Intelligence
There is a way to avoid this. The public should be told what the judgments of the intelligence community are about the possible consequences of a substantial drawdown of troops in Iraq.
There seems to be an assumption that if we draw down to a level of, say, 40,000 troops--slightly larger than the contingent we maintained in South Korea for many years--chaos and civil war would erupt and that we would be powerless to stop it. We must test that assumption thoroughly, the core issue being: Will the resulting chaos be substantially worse than the violence we see in Iraq today, and will the elected Iraqi government be able to survive?
The corollary questions are many and highly complex. To mention just a few: What is the eventual floor of US troop strength? Are we talking about a few thousand Marines to secure our embassy or a larger force capable of acting as a security guarantor in Iraq or in the region? Is Iraq our long-term burden or our long-term base of operations in a region we deem to be vitally important?
Instead, the debate over Iraq remains unproductively focused on the past. Last week’s should-we-stay-or-should-we-go hearings with General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker oscillated between lamentations on past blunders and assurances that things have gradually improved. In an odd way, the magnitude of the Bush administration’s initial mistakes helps the White House, for even today’s unstable Iraq is a substantial improvement over the violence of the previous five years.

Looking Backward
The presidential candidates have also had a tendency to look backward, yet Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John McCain all agree on an underlying issue: The United States should get out as soon as possible. The debate is over when and under what circumstances that time will come.
Their essential agreement is what makes it so vitally important that questions about the future US posture in Iraq and likely outcomes of changes in that posture, be discussed openly and in detail.
Undoubtedly the US military, intelligence community and diplomatic corps are busy examining the risks associated with a variety of possible policy courses in Iraq. Given the experience we have gained in that country, there is a good chance that the judgments our best people reach about possible outcomes will be at least as accurate as the prescient though largely overlooked warnings the intelligence community put together in January 2003, two months before the invasion.
Those warnings came in two reports distributed in secret by the National Intelligence Council to senior officials of the Bush administration and key congressional committees. With remarkable foresight, the reports--Regional Consequences of Regime Change in Iraq and Principal Challenges in Post-Saddam Iraq--described the risks and pitfalls of what was, by then, a set course toward invasion and occupation.
There were two significant shortcomings with these largely accurate assessments:
First, they were classified (they have since been made public), with the result that the American people had no opportunity to weigh the best judgment of its own government experts before committing to war.
Second, the reports were issued three months after Congress had voted to authorize the use of force; their troubling warnings had zero impact on the one branch of government in a position to stop the march to war.
We cannot afford to repeat that mistake. Justifiably maligned for its misjudgment of the weapons of mass destruction threat, the intelligence community has shown skill--if not perfect timing--in discerning how Iraq’s turbulent policy might respond to various US moves. The key now is not simply to dwell on past mistakes, but to also learn from them.

*John Diamond, a former intelligence reporter for USA TODAY, is author of a forthcoming book on the post-Cold War CIA.

Egyptian authorities have failed to tell the Muslim Brotherhood the charges on which 25 members have been sentenced, two days after a military court jailed them for up to 10 years, the group and its lawyer said on Thursday.
Khairat el-Shatir, third-in-command of Egypt’s strongest opposition group, was sentenced on Tuesday to seven years in jail while a member of the group’s governing guidance council received a three-year term. Another 15 men were acquitted, Reuters reported.
Barred from the court when the rulings were read, defense lawyer Abdel Moniem Abdel Maqsoud said a security officer informed him of the sentences but no details of the verdicts, including who was convicted on which charges, were provided.
“They prevented any lawyer from entering, or anyone from the media or anyone from the families of the accused,“ he told Reuters. “We only know the sentences.“
Abdel Maqsoud said he had requested a detailed copy of the ruling on Wednesday, but had not received a response.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has told a newspaper that Israel and Syria have been exchanging messages to clarify expectations of any future peace treaty.
Israeli daily “Yediot Ahronot“ wrote Thursday that Olmert didn’t disclose the content of the messages or provide other details about the contacts. AP reported.
“They [the Syrians] know what we want from them, and I know well what they want from us,“ Olmert said.
Peace talks between Syria and the Zionist regime broke down in 2000 as Syria wasn’t satisfied with Israel’s offer to return the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war. The territory was successfully defended in the 1973 Yom Kippur War and a sizable additional portion was later returned to Syria.
Syria insists on the return of the Golan Heights as part of any peace deal. In late 2003, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said he was ready to revive peace talks with Israel. The Golan Heights are of great strategic importance in the region.

Iraqi men clean up wreckage following an alleged air strike in BaghdadÕs Shiite Sadr City neighborhood on April 12

Al-Qaeda’s No. 2 leader claimed in an audiotape released Friday that five years of US involvement in Iraq brought only defeat, and said President Bush will be forced to pass the problem to his successor.
Ayman Al-Zawahri alleged that by heeding advice of his top commanders in Iraq and guaranteeing a heavy American military presence after July, Bush was “covering up for the failure“ of his Iraq policies, AP reported.
“If the American forces leave, they will lose everything. And if they stay, they will bleed to death,“ he argued.
The authenticity of the 16-minute recording, posted on a website known for militant messaging, could not be independently verified. But it carried the logo of Al-Qaeda’s media wing and was the second in April attributed to the terror network’s chief strategist.
Al-Zawahri also blasted Sunni fighters who switched sides and joined the American push to pacify Sunni areas of Iraq, the so-called “Awakening Councils.“
More Violence
Meanwhile, a suicide bomber struck the funeral of two Sunni tribesmen who joined forces against Al-Qaeda in Iraq, killing at least 50 people Thursday and reinforcing fears that insurgents are hitting back after American-led crackdowns.
The sudden spike in bloodshed this week adds to the other worries now piling up in Iraq: violent rivalries among Shiites and persistent cracks in the Iraqi security forces.
Violence across the country has declined since seven months ago, including dramatic suicide bombings like Thursday’s funeral attack. American officials credit the change to the US troop buildup and the rise of Awakening Councils that have turned against Al-Qaeda-linked militants. A truce called last year by anti-US Shiite cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr has also helped.
But the new bloodshed highlights how fragile those gains are.
Thursday’s attack happened in the town of Albu Mohammad, about 145 kilometers north of Baghdad. A suicide bomber dressed in traditional Arab robes passed unsearched by guards into a tent of mourners. The occasion was a funeral for two brothers who belonged to the local Awakening Council and who were killed in an attack a day earlier.
The bomber detonated explosives strapped to his body, killing at least 50 people and wounding dozens more, said police in the nearby city of Kirkuk.

US Partition Wall
In another development American forces have begun to build a massive concrete wall that will partition Sadr City, the densely populated Shiite neighborhood in the Iraqi capital.
According to New York Times, the construction is intended to turn the southern quarter of Sadr City near the international Green Zone into a protected enclave, secured by Iraqi and American forces, where the Iraqi government can undertake reconstruction efforts.
“You can’t really repair anything that is broken until you establish security,“ said Lt. Col. Dan Barnett, commander of the First Squadron in the Second Stryker Cavalry Regiment.

A wounded Palestinian calls for help at the spot where Reuters TV cameraman Fadel Shaana was killed when an Israeli missile hit his car.

Former US president Jimmy Carter and Hamas leaders discussed the possibility of a truce in the Gaza Strip during their talks in Cairo, a leader of the resistance group said on Friday.
Carter, who was due to meet Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal in Damascus on Friday, also raised the issue of an Israeli soldier seized in 2006 just outside the Palestinian territory, said Mahmud Zahar, who took part in Thursday’s meeting in Cairo, according to AFP.
“We had common points of view and the talks will continue today during the meeting with the political leadership of Hamas in Damascus,“ Zahar said.
“President Carter talked of humanitarian proposals linked to the truce,“ he said in reference to attempts to halt the bloodshed in Gaza, where 18 Palestinians were killed in the latest explosion of violence on Wednesday--a deadly Israeli strike which raised international outcry and condemnation by the Organization of the Islamic Conference, the EU and the United Nations.
Carter’s talks with Hamas have angered officials in the United States and Israel. Carter earlier rebuffed an Israeli call for canceling a meeting with Hamas.
The Hamas delegation also met Egyptian officials, including intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, to discuss a possible truce with Israel and a reopening of border crossings.
“We are working toward a truce on the condition that the crossing points be opened and that all enemy conditions stop immediately,“ said Taher al-Nunu, a Hamas spokesman and a member of the Palestinian delegation in Cairo.

Gazans “Starving to Death“
Before meeting with senior Hamas members in Egypt, Carter attended a question-answer session by university students in Egypt on Thursday.
He said sanctions imposed on Gaza are “criminal atrocity“ by the Zionist regime.
He said for every Israeli killed between 30 to 40 Palestinians are killed because of the extreme military capability of Israel.
Carter called the blockade of Gaza a crime and an atrocity and said US attempts to undermine Hamas had been “counterproductive“.
Speaking at the American University, Carter said Palestinians in Gaza were being “starved to death“ and received fewer calories a day than people in the poorest parts of Africa.
“It’s an atrocity what is being perpetrated as punishment on the people in Gaza. It’s a crime... I think it is an abomination that this continues to go on,“ Carter said.
Carter said Israel and the US were trying to make the quality of life in Gaza markedly worse than in the West Bank, where Fatah group is in control.
“I think politically speaking this has worked even to strengthen the popularity of Hamas and to the detriment of the popularity of Fatah,“ he added.
Carter said Hamas, which does not recognize Israel’s right to exist, must be involved in any arrangements that could lead to peace.
“One of the reasons I wanted to come and meet with the Syrians and Hamas was to set an example that might be emulated by others... I know that there are some officials in the Israeli government that are quite willing to meet with Hamas and maybe that will happen in the near future,“ he added, without naming who those Israeli officials may be.

Israeli Minister Supports Meshaal Talks
In other news, Israeli minister Eli Yishai said he was ready to meet Meshaal to negotiate the release of prisoners held by Hamas, the Haaretz daily reported on Friday.
“I am ready to meet with all necessary Hamas members,“ the newspaper quoted the industry minister as telling former US president Jimmy Carter during a meeting this week.
During a visit to Israel earlier in the week, Carter met the parents of Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier captured by Palestinians in June 2006, and pledged to take up calls for his release with Meshaal.
Yishai, a deputy prime minister, told Carter he was willing to meet with Shalit’s captors, Haaretz said. “I would be pleased if you could help,“ he told Carter on Monday.
Yishai’s office said he had not asked Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for permission to hold the meeting with Carter or told him what was discussed.
He said other officials were wrong in snubbing Carter during his visit to Israel.

W. Bank, Gaza Sealed
In another development, the Israeli military sealed off the West Bank and Gaza Strip Friday for at least a week while Jews celebrate the Passover holiday.
Israel says the closure will remain in effect until April 26th, with all Palestinians banned from entering Israel, except humanitarian cases.
The move follows an upsurge in violence in recent days that has led to the deaths of at least 21 Gazans.
More Settlements
Also on Friday, Israel called for bids to further develop two settlements in the occupied West Bank, despite international calls for a freeze on such activity.
The Housing Ministry called for bids for the construction of 100 housing units in the El Kana and Ariel settlements, both in the northern West Bank.
The internationally drafted 2003 roadmap agreement that forms the basis of Palestinian-Israeli peace talks requires Israel to freeze settlement construction. This is while the Zionist regime snubs international calls and continues to expand settlements in the occupied Palestinian lands.
The United States and Europe have pressed Israel to halt settlement activity, but on March 26 Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said construction would continue at settlements in the West Bank and east Beit-ul Moqaddas.

2 Palestinians Killed
Palestinian security officials said Israeli troops killed two Palestinians in a West Bank raid Friday.
The officials said the Islamic Jihad members were holed up inside a house in the town of Qabatiya when troops surrounded it early Thursday.
Islamic Jihad said one of the gunmen killed was Bilal Komel, 25, a military commander long-wanted by Israel. The second was identified as 19-year-old Ayed Zakarna.

Palestinian Prisoners
Palestinians held demonstrations across the occupied West Bank on Thursday in honor of Prisoner’s Day and more than 11,000 Palestinians held in Israeli jails. In the north around 2,000 people gathered in the heart of Nablus, waving Palestinian flags and holding large, framed portraits of loved ones.
“The issue of Palestinian and Arab prisoners is very important for us and we cannot talk of peace with the (Israeli) occupation without the release of all Palestinian prisoners,“ Nablus governor Jamal Al-Muhaisen said in a speech.
Palestinians have asked Israel to free all prisoners as part of peace talks between the two sides aimed at resolving the decades-old conflict by 2009.
“Our position was and is still unwavering -- that it is not possible to make peace with Israel unless all prisoners and all detainees are freed,“ Abbas said in a pre-recorded statement broadcast in Ramallah.