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Iraq Under Bush’s Successor
US National Priorities Project says the current costs of the war in Iraq have surpassed $500 billion for the United States.
It is estimated that the US government will incur a cumulative cost of $1.2 to $1.7 trillion for Iraq and Afghanistan wars by 2017, with Iraq generally accounting for three-quarters of the costs. That’s according to the US Congressional Budget Office.
Some $1.3 trillion have been also estimated for the total economic costs of Iraq war from 2002 to 2008, including interest costs of borrowing funds, lost investment, long-term veterans’ health care and oil market disruptions, according to a November 2007 report from Congress’ Joint Economic Committee.
Five years have elapsed since the US-led occupation of Iraq. More than 4,000 US soldiers have been killed; so also have thousands of Iraqis.
American tax payers are dissatisfied with the ongoing war on Iraq. But the embattled US President George Bush and his outgoing administration are still insisting on their failed policies in Iraq and refusing the withdrawal of troops.
Following is an editorial published in the “Star Tribune“--the largest newspaper in the US state of Minnesota--on the Iraq war policy after Bush.
In an important sense, the presidential campaign has helped frame the question facing Americans as they ponder the war in Iraq.
No longer is it especially helpful to debate the wisdom of the US effort there.
What should concern the nation now--after five years, thousands of American lives lost or ruined, an unknown number of Iraqis dead, and with the pending departure of the president whose administration must bear the responsibility for what has gone thus far--is what to do next.
And that question, in turn, was brought into sharper focus last week with the Capitol Hill testimony of General David Petraeus and with President Bush’s speech about the prospects for the short term.
By now, anything past the short term is beyond Bush’s purview. When he speaks about Iraq, he is speaking largely about the Iraq he will leave to the next administration.
It is first an Iraq with 140,000 American troops. That the number is smaller than the surge of 170,000 is some comfort, but it is hardly on track with the troop reductions that Americans had been allowed to hope for, if not exactly expect.
Second, it is a theater in which American soldiers can expect to serve only a year at a time, with at least a year off between deployments.
That change is an important one; the current 15-month tour is an unreasonable hardship for many soldiers and their families.
Even if the announced change were not the humane thing to do, it would also be the practical thing to do, for the military is worn dangerously, ill-advisedly thin.
It needs the effort in Iraq to be scaled back so that it can concentrate more of its forces on, for example, Afghanistan.
The conclusion of the surge, though, may represent a moment of truth. The increase of 30,000 soldiers produced the desired effect, a reduction in violence.
As the withdrawal has progressed, however, insurgent attacks have begun to rise. Last week was the year’s deadliest for American forces.
For the surge to be truly successful, it needs to have produced a lasting benefit--and whether it has done so is far from clear.
Bush’s speech last Thursday sounded some notes that needed to be heard--notably a heightened expectation that Iraq will take on a greater share of the burden, not only for its defense but also for its reconstruction.
His emphasis on the need for a less-dependent Iraq rang true. Given the economic challenges facing the United States, there is little appetite among taxpayers for indefinitely financing Iraq’s recovery.
And Bush was right to stress the interest that all Middle East nations have in a prosperous, self-sustaining Iraq.
Among those nations is Iran. Bush’s task should be to help make the case to Iran’s leaders that their own interests are best served by stability in Iraq and the rest of the region.
The best defense against the problems of the Middle East is a future that holds opportunity for everyone, that offers choices beyond fundamentalism and desperation.
President Bush will have more to say about the Iraq war before he leaves office. But from now on, the future of the war will increasingly be determined by those who oppose him abroad and those who seek to succeed him at home. Bush’s involvement will be a matter for hindsight, and history.
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Bomb Kills
Yemeni Police
Three Yemeni policemen were killed and another four wounded on Wednesday morning when a bomb exploded as they were parking their car in the city of Marib, witnesses and hospital sources said.
The blast occurred at the spot where the policemen parked everyday in the city located around 170 kilometers east of the Yemeni capital Sanaa, AFP reported.
The vehicle was totally destroyed, the witnesses said.
No further details were immediately available, but the blast was the latest in a series of recent attacks, including two targeting US interests and claimed by Al-Qaeda.
The US embassy in Sanaa said last week it was ordered by the State Department to evacuate non-essential personnel following the March 18 and April 6 attacks in the impoverished Arabian Peninsula state.
Al-Qaeda’s branch in Yemen, which calls itself the Jund Al-Yemen Brigades, claimed in an Internet statement to have targeted the embassy in the March 18 attack, in which a schoolgirl and a policeman were killed and 19 people wounded.
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US, Russia Trade Barbs Over Georgia
The United States and Russia exchanged sharp words over Georgia’s two breakaway regions after the UN Security Council unanimously extended the mandate of UN military observers in Abkhazia.
US Ambassador to the United Nations Zalmay Khalilzad told reporters Washington was “deeply concerned by reports from Moscow that Russia is planning on establishing semi-official representative missions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia without the approval of the Georgian government.“
“We urge Russia not to follow this path, which would undercut Russia’s stated support for the principles of Georgian sovereignty and territorial integrity,“ he said.
According to Reuters, the Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions broke away after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, when Georgia became independent. They have since relied on Moscow’s support.
The resolution, which Russia, the United States and four other countries co-sponsored, extended the mandate of the UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) until Oct. 15.
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Carter Rebuffs Israeli Call
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Former US president Jimmy Carter smiles while talking to journalists in the West Bank city of Ramallah.
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Jimmy Carter rebuffed a call Wednesday from an Israeli lawmaker to halt his contacts with Hamas as the senior leaders of the Islamic resistance movement rushed to Egypt in anticipation of a meeting with the former US president.
Carter, who is scheduled to fly to Egypt after wrapping up the first leg of a weeklong Mideast peace mission, has drawn criticism from the US and Israel for meeting officials from Hamas, AP reported.
All of Israel’s senior political leaders declined to meet Carter, and only the Israeli president Shimon Peres made time to meet with him.
Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip, announced Wednesday that two of its Gaza leaders, Mahmoud Zahar and Said Siyam, were on their way to meet Carter in Cairo.
“Jimmy Carter wants to hear out our point of view,“ said Salah Bardawil, a Hamas legislator in Gaza. Bardawil was not part of the delegation going to Egypt.
On Tuesday Carter met a Hamas leader Nasser Shaer in the West Bank, and on Friday he is scheduled to meet the group’s top official Khaled Mashaal in Syria.
“I don’t think it is possible to have an ultimate peace agreement without the involvement of Syria. And I don’t think it will be possible without the involvement of Hamas,“ Carter told a group of Israeli and Palestinian peace activists, repeating what has become the theme of his visit. “To have them excluded from conversations or consultations I think is counterproductive,“ he said.
Earlier Wednesday, hardline Israeli politician Avigdor Lieberman tried to persuade Carter from meeting Hamas’ top leader in Syria. “Meeting a terrorist like Khaled Mashaal only encourages and increases terrorism,“ Lieberman told Carter, according to a Lieberman spokesman.
At least five Palestinians including four Hamas members were injured in the clashes in the central and northern Gaza Strip. Several Israeli soldiers were also hurt.
In another development, an Israeli aircraft fired a missile at a motorcycle in northern Gaza, killing a local Islamic Jihad commander, Palestinians said.
Dr. Moaiya Hassanain of the Palestinian Health Ministry said the dead militant belonged to Islamic Jihad. The group said the dead man was Mohammed Ghausain, its commander in northern Gaza. He was hit while riding his motorcycle in the Jebaliya refugee camp.
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Fadlallah Slams Israeli FM
Lebanon’s top Shiite cleric slammed Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, describing her comments about Hezbollah and Hamas “a big insult to all Arabs and Muslims.“
Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah issued a strong statement saying Livni’s remarks reflect Israel’s “brazenness and arrogance“ and her visit to Qatar aimed at driving a wedge between Arab countries willing to make peace with Israel, and those who are opposed to it, RTTNews reported.
Qatar has no diplomatic ties with Israel, but the two nations maintain low-level trade relations which has raised the fury of the other Muslim nations.
“The visits are not only meant to normalize Israel’s ties with Arab countries, but are also designed to pave the way for an Arab-Israeli alliance against other Arabs and Muslims who refuse to let the usurper entity of Israel to liquidate the Palestinian people,“ Fadlallah was quoted as saying in the statement.
During her two-day visit to Doha, Livni’s first to any Persian Gulf state, the Israeli foreign minister said Israel and Arab states are involved in the same struggle with what she called “extremists like Hizbullah and Hamas“.
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Lebanon Resolution
Still in Force
The United Nations Security Council said its Resolution 1701 that ended the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war was still in force, after Israel complained Syria was arming Hezbollah in violation of the measure.
In a statement read out by the council’s president for April, South African Ambassador to the UN Dumisani Kumalo, the council said it “reiterates its commitment to the full implementation of all provisions of resolution 1701.“
The council “takes note of the progress as well as of the concerns expressed“ by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on the resolution’s implementation in his latest report on the matter, AP reported.
The statement, adopted unanimously by the 15-member council, also “emphasizes the need for greater progress on all the key issues required for a permanent cease fire and long term solution.“
It does not spell out, however, what these “key issues“ are.
Resolution 1701 of August 14, 2006, brought an end to a devastating, 34-day Israeli military offensive against its northern neighbor, launched after Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid.
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Iraq Confident of Al-Qaeda Defeat
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A US soldier and an Iraqi anti Al-Qaeda militiaman stand guard at the site of a suicide attack north of Baghdad.
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Iraq’s Prime Minister said Wednesday he is more confident than ever his government will defeat al-Qaeda in Iraq.
Speaking a day after nearly 60 people were killed in bombings blamed on the group, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said Iraq’s leaders were “determined to achieve victory against terrorism.“
Al-Maliki was speaking to lawmakers at the European Parliament during a visit to EU headquarters in which he is pushing for closer ties with the 27-nation bloc, AFP reported.
“We are today more confident than any time before that we are close to the point where we can declare victory against al-Qaeda,“ al-Maliki said.
On Tuesday, bombings blamed on al-Qaeda in Iraq tore through market areas in Baghdad and outside the capital, killing nearly 60 people.
Conditions Improper for Refugees
While al-Maliki said the violence will be curbed in view of defeating al-Qaeda, a US-based refugee committee said conditions needed for Iraqi refugees and internally displaced people to return to their homes don’t exist.
Refugees International said in a report all relevant actors should discourage returns until the violence subsides and people can receive adequate assistance and protection.
It also said the Iraqi government and international community failed to meet the needs of the refugees and displaced, forcing non-state actors to step in to help.
The humanitarian relief organization based in Washington added that militias of all denominations are improving their local base of support by providing social services in the neighborhoods and towns they control.
“The Shiite Sadrist movement has established itself as the main service provider in the country. Similarly, other Shiite and Sunni groups have gained support through providing food, oil, electricity, clothing and money to vulnerable Iraqis living in their territories,“ the report said.
For Iraq to have any future, the report noted, international donors must ensure that resources are allocated to the humanitarian response, and that all appeals are fully funded.
US Diplomats Warned of Compulsory Duty
In other development on Wednesday, the US State Department warned diplomats they may be forced to serve in Iraq next year and it will soon start identifying prime candidates for jobs at the Baghdad embassy and outlying provinces.
A similar call-up threat last year caused a revolt among foreign service officers who objected to compulsory work in a war zone, although in the end the State Department found enough volunteers to fill the jobs.
Now, the State Department anticipates another staffing crisis.
More than 20 percent of the nearly 12,000 US foreign service officers have already worked in the two major hardship posts--Iraq and Afghanistan--and a growing number have done tours in both countries.
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NATO Soldiers Killed
An explosion in southern Afghanistan killed two NATO soldiers Wednesday. Two other soldiers were wounded and later evacuated to a military base for treatment.
Abbas to Russia
Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas will visit Moscow on Thursday for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, his spokesman Nabil Abu Rdineh said on Wednesday.
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Ruling Party Wins Egypt Municipal Elections
Egypt’s ruling party has won 92 percent of the votes in municipal elections boycotted by the main opposition group the Muslim Brotherhood, a security official told AFP.
“After calculating the results handed in from the individual municipalities, we can say the ruling party has won 92 percent of votes and eight percent went to opposition and independent candidates,“ the official said.
There are no official turnout figures, but many polling stations were empty on April 8, with the victory of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) never in doubt after the disqualification of many opposition candidates.
The elections gained an unprecedented importance after a 2005 constitutional amendment requiring independent presidential candidates to secure the backing of councilors.
Those not belonging to political parties, including the banned Muslim Brotherhood whose members sit in parliament as independents, need the support of at least 10 local councilors in at least 14 provinces to stand.
The next presidential election is set for 2011.
Students Protest
In other news, baton-wielding Egyptian riot police clashed with about 500 Cairo University students belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood as they protested against the use of militarytrials for civilians on Wednesday.
Five students were lightly injured in the clashes.
The Muslim Brotherhood students had organized a demonstration to protest the use of military trials for civilians after 25 members of the group were sentenced Tuesday to up to 10 years behind bars.
Egyptian authorities accuse the Muslim Brotherhood of seeking to revive its underground military wing and eventually trying to topple the regime.
Turkish Jets Strike PKK In Iraq
Turkish warplanes attacked a group of separatist Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq as they attempted to sneak across the border into Turkey, the Turkish military said Wednesday.
The statement said the armed group was “rendered ineffective“ in the raid, which took place Tuesday in the Avasin-Basyan area of northern Iraq, without saying how many rebels were killed, AFP reported.
Turkish warplanes have targeted Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) positions in northern Iraq since mid-December. In February, the army conducted a week-long ground offensive against PKK hideouts in the region, where Ankara estimates more than 2,000 militants take refuge.
Also Tuesday, the army clashed with PKK rebels in two mountainous areas in southeast Turkey, killing at least one militant, the statement said.
The soldiers also seized rifles, ammunition, explosives and other bomb-making materials in rebel hideouts, it added.
The Turkish government has a one-year parliamentary authorization, which expires in October, for cross-border raids in northern Iraq against the PKK.
The PKK, listed as a terrorist group by Turkey and much of the international community, has been fighting for self-rule in Turkey’s mainly Kurdish southeast since 1984. The conflict has claimed more than 37,000 lives.
Erdogan Confident AK Party Won’t be Closed
Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said he did not believe his AK Party would be shut down in the end.
Erdogan, who was accompanied by his wife Emine Erdožan in a visit to the Qatar Foundation’s Education City in Doha Tuesday, said his party experts are now working on a road map to solve the problem, Today’s Zaman reported.
He said he would receive a briefing on alternative strategies when he returns to Ankara.
Facing the threat of being shut down by the Constitutional Court, the ruling Justice and Development Party known as the AK Party is about to finalize a strategy to prevent possible closure and is confident that the court will not rule to ban the party in the end, top government leaders said.
Rice Cautious on Turkish Crisis
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is taking a cautious line on Turkey’s constitutional crisis as the country’s top court considers a case for banning the Islamic-rooted ruling party.
In a speech at a Turkish-American conference Tuesday, Rice avoided direct reference to the case by a Turkish prosecutor to declare the country’s ruling party in violation of constitutional laws protecting secular principals, AP reported.
The prosecutor has asked the court to bar 71 people, including Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul, from politics for five years.
Answering a question about the case after her speech, Rice said that the United States hopes that this will be decided within Turkey’s secular democratic context, and by secular democratic principles.
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