Somali women line up to receive hot meals handed out by NGOs in the town of Afgoye south of Mogadishu, December 2, 2007.

Worse than Darfur. That was the assessment two weeks ago of the United Nations’ top refugee official in Somalia, who called the country Africa’s worst humanitarian crisis.
The transitional government’s Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein, who took office three months ago, faces the challenges of reconciling Somalia’s warring clans, keeping Islamic terrorists out and squelching a boom in piracy along the coast.
Hussein, previously the chairman of Somalia’s Red Crescent society, the Islamic equivalent of the Red Cross, recently spoke with Newsweek’s Jason McLure about the humanitarian crisis, his relationship with the Central Intelligence Agency and Somalia’s tourism industry. Excerpts:

NEWSWEEK: A few U.N. officials have said that Somalia is Africa’s worst humanitarian crisis. Is it really that bad?
Nur Hassan Hussein: I would not say the worst, but definitely we have to admit that up to a certain degree there is a humanitarian crisis, which cannot be denied. You can imagine that if the security situation is so bad, the access for humanitarian operations is hampered. But right now we are witnessing a visible improvement. We will try our best so that the relief operations intended to reach the vulnerable people are not hampered.

How important is your relationship with the Ethiopian government? The Transitional Federal Government (TFG) came back to Somalia with the help of Ethiopian troops, but is the presence of Ethiopian troops there harmful to the legitimacy of your government?
Not at all, not at all. The Ethiopian government came to our aid at a moment when this aid was badly needed. Since then it has continued to support us in relation to the security restoration.

The United States views Somalia as part of its international war against terrorism. How much of the current violence there now is related to international terror groups, and how much is simply clans or factions fighting for power?
For some time Somalia was without government and you can imagine that in this environment or vacuum, without enforcement, there is a possibility to see so many things. There was a conception that the deteriorating situation would allow terrorists to find a haven in Somalia.

Does the TFG hand people suspected of being terrorists over to the United States or to other countries for trial or interrogation?
No, no, no. Not now. I mean definitely we have in the past. The Somali government is obliged, with regard to terrorism, to be in line with international laws.

Some people have said that much of the conflict in Somalia is a proxy war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Is that the case?
We have Eritrea supporting the opposition groups. We have Ethiopian troops supporting the Somali transitional government. The relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea is definitely not good. But I cannot say it is a proxy [war]. I don’t think what is happening in Somalia is the [importing of] this problem. There are so many other factors.

Under your predecessor, Ali Mohammed Gedi, the TFG arrested the head of the United Nations World Food Program in Somalia. At the time there was a suspicion that the U.N. chief was arrested because the World Food Program was distributing food in some areas that supported the opposition.
I’m coming from the humanitarian field. And definitely what we believe is that when it comes to the humanitarian operations, the vulnerable people are vulnerable, regardless of their political beliefs, regardless of their religion, regardless of the color, regardless of the clan they belong to. As a humanitarian, I need to support both sides.

Piracy has been a continuing problem and one that has grown worse last year. What needs to be done about it?
Piracy is very much a threat to humanitarian operations. It is the major factor making the crisis worse. Each ransom paid for a ship [seized] by pirates makes the situation worse. So we urge the whole international community to look at this. It needs to be addressed at the international level, [including] adequate support to the Somali government right now to fight piracy.

I understand that you would like the United Nations to send peacekeepers to Somalia. What did they say needs to be done before they will send peacekeepers?
They sent an assessment team already. I think what they identified was that there is a need for U.N. peacekeeping troops.

Does the U.N. have the political will to send troops? When you talk to Americans about Somalia, what they know is the story of “Black Hawk Down.“
Yes, but I think that picture is now changing. If yesterday Somalia was seen as such, today I think it is being seen in a different way. And these changes I think will also bring about the possibility to engage troops from Europe, America and Arab [countries].
Jason McLure
Newsweek.com

The atmosphere in this frigid city is not as dynamic as in Baku or as vibrant as in Tbilisi, but talk around Republic Square is filled with unguarded enthusiasm theses days. On Feb. 19, Armenians go to the polls to elect a new president to succeed Robert Kocharyan, the Nagorno-Karabakh war hero and former de facto president of the self-proclaimed republic.
The main contenders for the presidency are Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan and former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosyan. Young, pro-Western Artur Baghdasaryan, the former speaker of the national assembly, is also mounting a long-shot bid for the highest office.
While election issues in Armenia focus on corruption, job creation and development beyond the capital, outside observers tend to speculate most on how the election will affect Armenia’s stance in negotiations on resolving the 15-year standoff with Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh. A high-level European delegation, led by Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel, whose country currently holds the European Union’s rotating presidency, visited both capitals last week in an attempt to gauge attitudes toward conflict resolution. Azeri President Ilham Aliyev took the opportunity to indicate that his country was willing to use its expanding military to “wage war“ to secure the return of the territory.
Ter-Petrosyan’s plausible bid is interesting given that he had been forced out of office in 1998 by his own ministers, led by Kocharyan, who accused Ter-Petrosyan of being overly generous in Karabakh negotiations. Ten years later, the participants of the Minsk Group, which facilitates talks on the conflict, have adopted most of Ter-Petrosyan’s ideas, and all that remains to be resolved--at least on paper--is an agreement on a referendum in the territory.
Given both his history and election rhetoric, Ter-Petrosyan can be expected to work harder than Sargsyan to head off renewed open conflict with Baku and achieve eventual resolution. Not surprisingly, Sargsyan has questioned his patriotism.
But, despite its declared foreign policy strategy of “complementarity,“ the Kocharyan-Sargsyan government, headed by veterans of the Karabakh war, depends on Russian aid and diplomatic support to maintain the cease-fire line.
Under their watch, much of Armenia’s key infrastructure and enterprises have been bought by Kremlin-controlled firms. The country hosts more than 5,000 Russian troops, with additional forces and equipment transferred to Armenia when bases in Georgia were closed last year.
The contentious election is happening only because Kocharyan chose to honor the constitution and step down after two terms, which was not a foregone conclusion. And several polls have shown the increased popularity of Western institutions such as the EU and NATO as well as less tolerance for corruption and “politics as usual.“
That said, Sargsyan has blatantly used government institutions and capabilities for campaigning purposes. More than a thousand Sargsyan campaign offices have been opened across the country, mainly by local officials, and government buildings display his election posters--a violation of Armenian election law.
As political analyst Richard Giragosyan says, Armenia’s road to Western-style representative government--unlike Georgia’s--is “an evolution, not a revolution.“
At least through U.S. and European eyes, an election victory for Ter-Petrosyan would seem a positive evolutionary step. While his presidency would certainly bring Armenia a “back-to-the-future“ moment and while Baghdasaryan would likely be more of a reformer, success by a candidate not ordained by the ruling party would lend legitimacy to Armenia’s democratic development.
And the progress he might bring to Karabakh talks is seen in the United States and Europe as key to the country’s potential Western course--even as it quietly courts NATO and works within the European Neighborhood Policy.
While political discontent and interest in the West is rising among ordinary Armenians, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and a comfortably established leadership make it unlikely that Yerevan’s Republic Square will be the next sight of a color revolution.
But next week’s truly contested election between Sargsyan and Ter-Petrosyan holds potential for continued change--perhaps in a Western direction. Geopolitical circumstances mean that Armenians will have to move in that direction on their own. But self-motivation and evolution may very well be the ingredients for sustainable good governance and Western integration.
Moscowtimes.ru

Thousands of protesters rally at the Manila February 15 demanding the ouster of Philippine President Gloria Arroyo and her husband Jose Miguel Arroyo.

Hounded by corruption allegations, coup attempts and dissatisfaction and defection within her own party ranks, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s political troubles have apparently been compounded by a foiled attempt on her life by rebels.
Brigadier General Romeo Prestoza, head of Arroyo’s security detail, said the president had been targeted by the purportedly al-Qaeda-influenced militant group Abu Sayyaf, which Philippine forces are combating on the country’s southern Mindanao island with the assistance of US military advisers.
The security official said the alleged plot was uncovered last week and apparently included plans to assassinate the national leader in a sniper attack.
The official also said the rebel group planned to bomb unnamed foreign embassies situated in the capital.
The announcement forced Arroyo into lock-down mode due to fears over her personal security. That included the abrupt cancelation of her planned visit over the weekend to the Philippines Military Academy in provincial Baguio City, where the president is known to spend holidays.
It remains unclear if security officials planned to declare a state of emergency or crack down on planned anti-government rallies over the alleged plot, similar to the government’s reaction to an alleged coup attempt in February 2006.
Opposition critics have questioned the timing of the announcement of the alleged plot, which conveniently coincided with a planned mass anti-government rally on Friday in the capital’s financial district. The gathering was expected to call for Arroyo’s resignation on recent corruption allegations.
Anti-government forces have in recent weeks held daily protests around Manila, where demonstrators have called on the people to rise up and oust what they consider to be an increasingly corrupt administration.
The military, meanwhile, had earlier announced that security forces were on “high alert“ over alleged communist rebel plans to infiltrate the protests. Apart from fighting secessionist groups, the Philippine military is also locked in provincial battles with the communist rebel group, the New People’s Army.
The alleged plot notably failed to make headline news in Manila, with even the pro-government daily newspapers keeping the story off the front page. Adel Tamano, spokesman for the so-called “united opposition“, cautioned that the security forces “should not use the bogey of terrorism or destabilization to disrupt the people’s right to peaceful assembly“.
Even the rebel Moro Islamic Liberation Front, with which the military has recently exchanged gunfire and which the government has accused of having secret links to Abu Sayyaf, denied any involvement in the alleged plot. A spokesman for the rebel group said it considered the allegations tantamount to a provocation and that the charges had the potential to jeopardize their tentative peace negotiations with the government.
Meanwhile, opposition momentum against Arroyo’s government is arguably at its strongest since she first assumed office in 2001. Following recent democratic elections, the influential Senate is now controlled by the opposition and even long-time House of Representatives speaker Jose de Venetia, a former staunch Arroyo ally, has now become one of her loudest critics.
The influential Catholic Church is also mobilizing support among its faithful to demand Arroyo’s resignation over fresh claims that her husband and a close political ally solicited millions of dollars worth of kickbacks from a US$329 million broadband infrastructure deal with China’s state-run telecommunications conglomerate, ZTE Corp, which has since been canceled amid the controversy.
Rodolfo Noel Lozada Jr, head of the Philippine Forest Corp, a wholly government-owned and controlled corporation with apparent inside knowledge of the canceled deal, has accused former election commissioner and Arroyo ally Benjamin Abalos and Arroyo’s husband, Miguel Arroyo, of demanding a $130 million kickback on the proposed ZTE deal.
Both have strenuously denied the allegations, and Lozada, after several bizarre twists and turns, including the issuance of a warrant for his arrest and then allegations that he was kidnapped, has recently re-emerged as the prosecution’s star witness in the politically charged case.
Adding to the case’s murkiness, Lozada himself currently stands accused by critics of dispensing contracts without competitive bidding for a recent state biofuel-related project.
Whether the assassination plot against Arroyo is real or imagined may never be known. Abu Sayyaf has recently been routed on the battlefield by the Philippine military and in the past has taken its desperate fight to Manila, including a bombing of a passenger ferry that killed 116 people in 2004. There is also the possibility that the assassination attempt, if authentic, could have originated from inside the ranks of the military itself.
What is more clear is that Arroyo’s government has a well-worn history of obfuscation and subterfuge when her administration is under threat, including during the course of two failed impeachment motions against her, including allegations of vote-rigging in the 2004 election she narrowly won.
Times.com