Kosovo Albanians wave an Albanian flag in celebration of the decalaration of independence in the ethnically divided town of Mitrovica on February 15.

Kosovo is counting days, even hours, to its declaration of independence. It is happening. A few sources pointed to Feb. 17 as “D“ day. Some said perhaps the 18th. Last week, the province’s new prime minister, Hashim Taci, hinted, “That was the last weekend before the declaration of independence.“
Under agreement with its Western supporters, Kosovo expects a prompt and coordinated response by the international community. Upon declaration, the United States and major European states should promptly recognize its independence. Taci expects up to 100 countries to recognize Kosovo within days.
The West waited for the outcome of the Serbian presidential elections last week before moving to the final phase of this process. It was reasonably expected that with a moderate president in office things would go smoother. Pro-European incumbent Boris Tadic beat radical Tomislav Nikolic by a few votes, which was a favorable development, but perhaps not by as much as was hoped.
The European Union wanted to sign a political deal with Serbia right after reelection, offering a fast track to rapprochement, a visa liberalization deal, and a few other sweeteners for the bitter pill of Kosovo. Even though Tadic’s party was in favor of signing the deal, hard line Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica succeeded in blocking the process. Kostunica called the political agreement offered by the European Union a scam.
The European Union, which is set to deploy a military mission in independent Kosovo, will now have to do it without any political support in Belgrade. In the meantime, Serbia, though with some political restraint, is swaying between early elections and declaring a state of emergency.
Time closed in but it made things no clearer. Nobody can tell the course things will take. A recent United States intelligence report foresaw bleak times ahead of the Balkans (again); families of foreign military personnel in Kosovo are being evacuated; a bomb went off in Belgrade the other day. A former Albanian guerilla member from Macedonia, commander Hoxha, says he controls the village of Tanusevci on the Macedonian-Kosovo border, and he wants to secede it from Macedonia and merge it to Kosovo. Many radicals definitely see an interest in an escalation of violence.
Russia is angry and continuously reminds the West will have to bear the consequences of this precedent in international law. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Ivanov suggested at a high profile security conference in Munich last weekend that Kosovo opens the Pandora Box, and hinted that the European Union should now also recognize Northern Cyprus. Russia said it would support Serbia and consider anew its relations with countries that recognize Kosovo.
Serbia said it would respond to Kosovo’s secession resolutely but that it would not use military force. It plans to cut the power supply to the province, press charges against countries that recognize it, impose diplomatic sanctions, and other measures it would not reveal.
Yet, that is just on the surface of things. What looks by this point in time quite certain is that a declaration of independence will be followed by a declaration of autonomy by the Serbs in the north of the province.
This is the critical variable as it could be the beginning of a de facto partition.
Both Serbia and Kosovo flatly turned down the tacit offer of partition a few months back. Yet clearly, it can easily re-emerge. If this course gains political relevance (even without considering the violence that can quickly spiral out of control), the risks to the region amplify. Macedonia, with a sizable Albanian community itself, and Bosnia and Herzegovina can enter the equation. There would be radicals in Macedonia who would think the time has come for secession of the Albanian lands there. Serbs in the Republic of Srpska, the Serbian entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina, could feel entitled to get what the Kosovars got.
It is domino effect theory at its worst. And, according to some, in particular Russia, it would be just the beginning of secessions the world over.
For those who remember Samuel Huntington’s ominous book Clash of Civilizations the Balkans is one of the possible hotspots that can trigger global cultural mayhem.
Putting gloom aside, it does not need to happen. If Kosovo were recognized by a huge number of countries, as planned, it would become a sovereign reality in international relations, though with delayed United Nations recognition. Serbia, for all its pain, would be smart not to enter into another devastating period of isolation, after all the wars in the 90’s. It also takes some restraint and willpower to act quickly on the ground to prevent large-scale violence. The domino stops there.
Not only is this scenario more desirable, it is also more likely. This is what the West reckons with.
Yet the plot still climaxes. An unraveling is
imminent.
Risto Karajkov
Worldpress.org

An Iraqi man reacts as he calls for help at the site where 11 people were killed and at least 75 wounded in three large explosions outside a market complex in southern Baghdad October 4, 2006.

Six months ago, the Iraqi town of Tarmiya near Baghdad was a lawless al Qaeda lair, a springboard for launching attacks on the capital.
Now, people can walk the streets. Markets have flourished and U.S. soldiers patrol in relatively safety. The key reason has been the creation of a Sunni Arab neighbourhood security unit similar to scores that have been set up across Iraq.
But while Tarmiya shows how effective the U.S.-backed units can be, it highlights both the strains on a programme the Shi’ite-led government appears wary of embracing and the growing frustration among some guards over their long-term future.
Such units, which the U.S. military calls “concerned local citizens“, first emerged in western Anbar province in late 2006 when Sunni Arab tribal chiefs rebelled against al Qaeda because of its indiscriminate attacks and harsh interpretation of Islam.
Defeated in Anbar, the militants initially regrouped in places like Tarmiya, 30 km (20 miles) north of Baghdad. Last September, locals decided they had had enough.
“There were mass killings and slaughter, disgusting things. No one could walk alone,“ said Imad Jassim, whose father set up and paid for the 500-strong security unit in the town.
The U.S. military credits the largely Sunni Arab security units with helping reduce violence in many parts of Iraq.
About 80,000 men--including former insurgents--have been recruited, with most paid about $300 a month by the military.
They man checkpoints and provide tips on militant hideouts.
Attacks in Tarmiya have shrunk from 18 a day to one or two a week, Lieutenant-Colonel Tommy Boccardi, the local U.S. commander, told Reuters during a visit to the town.
“Al Qaeda fears us ... but they fear the concerned local citizens (CLC) more because they know who they are,“ he said, referring to the tips the neighbourhood police pass on to U.S. forces.
But while the units have good ties with U.S. forces, deep distrust exists with the Shi’ite-led government, which remains wary of supporting groups whose ranks include many insurgents who took up arms following the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.
Some Shi’ite politicians--suspecting Sunni Arabs want to regain the dominance they had under Saddam Hussein--fear the tribal units could turn their guns on Iraq’s security forces, especially with U.S. troops starting to withdraw.
In Tarmiya, mistrust was heightened when police detained Jassim’s father, a local tribal sheikh who set up the unit, over accusations he was involved in violence.
He remains in Defence Ministry custody, U.S. military officials said, even though he had been cleared of any charges.
The government, which says it values the CLC programme, plans to integrate about 20 percent of the volunteers into the national police force while civilian jobs are found for the rest when they are not needed, a process that has dragged.
Officials have said most of the volunteers would be on the government’s payroll by mid-2008.
That has not appeased suspicions on the ground in Tarmiya, where the volunteers man checkpoints in civilian clothing.
With AK-47 rifles dangling at their side, the only thing distinguishing them from militants is a pink ID card worn around their necks or reflective clothing so they can be identified by U.S. soldiers at night.
“Where do we stand now? We want to join the police but the Interior Ministry has hampered this,“ said Firas Shakir, a member of the unit in Tarmiya.
An end to cooperation could jeopardise hard-won security gains. But for the time being, U.S. commanders are confident the neighbourhood groups won’t turn against them.
“We see them staying friendly. As long as they see some vision for the future regardless of their sect or anything else ... they are staying,“ said Brigadier-General Will Grimsley, deputy commander of U.S. forces in Baghdad.
The neighbourhood units have also come under increasing attack from militants, including al Qaeda.
Boccardi said the unit was taking casualties. Although it does not have accurate figures, the U.S. military says attacks on CLCs have doubled since October.
“Quite frankly, they are in battle,“ Boccardi said.
That doesn’t appear to worry the volunteers in Tarmiya.
Their attitude has impressed their American allies.
“We see them attacked, we see them killed,“ said Grimsley.
“But they come back--that’s the real measure.“
Reuters.com

Due process in this country (US) is under grave threat when a Supreme Court justice says torture can be justified in some cases.
U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia told the BBC, “It would be absurd to say you couldn’t, I don’t know, stick something under the fingernail, smack him in the face“ to obtain critical information in the face of an imminent threat.
More disturbing was the fact that Scalia questioned whether constitutional prohibitions against certain punishments necessarily meant the government was prohibited from using the same means to extract information “crucial to society.“
We can all think of circumstances under which we might resort to extreme behavior regardless of the consequences. But by starting with the premise that torture can be justified, we bypass the first critical step in what must be a most rigorous process in considering what the Bush administration calls “enhanced interrogation techniques.“
Call it the Jack Bauer factor. The counterterrorism agent played by Kiefer Sutherland on the Fox television show “24“ has been known to slap around terrorists to get information. We can cheer for him because we know--as the story line tells us--who the bad guys are and that Bauer is trying to save lives.
Unlike on TV, suspects in real life are just that--suspects yet to be proven guilty. There’s always the possibility that we’re going to be torturing the wrong person for information he doesn’t have. Then there is the question of the reliability of any information extracted under torture.
The use of torture is already an issue in this country. The confirmation of Attorney General Michael Mukasey was held up when Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., could not pin down Mukasey on whether he considered simulated drowning --waterboarding--torture. The use of waterboarding on 9/11 suspects who are coming up for trial will likely complicate their prosecution.
To have a Supreme Court justice say torture can be justified gives that option too much weight and prominence in the national security arsenal. Coming from a judge who sits on the highest court in the land, the statement could be interpreted as giving an implied green light to torturing terrorism suspects.
The idea of resorting to torture should be so extraordinary in our system of justice that anyone contemplating crossing that line must see it truly as a last resort, must be fully aware of the consequences, and be ready to accept punishment.
By dismantling our judicial system in the name of fighting terrorism--and that’s what allowing torture in interrogations amounts to--we take a path that takes us far from the ideals of the democracy we seek to protect.
Burlingtonfreepress.com