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Thu, Jan 03, 2008
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Economy News in Brief
Pak Turmoil Persists
US Housing Still in Trouble
S. Korea Exports At $380b
India IT Market Grows by 24%
China Double-Digit
Growth Continuing
Poll Chaos Could
Halt Kenya Boom
Oil Above $96
Dollar Falls
Russo-Serb Gas Contract Expected

Pak Turmoil Persists
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A Pakistani stockbroker talks on a cellular telephone as he watches a screen show in Pakistani stocks at the main Karachi Stock Exchanges in this file photo.
KARACHI, Pakistan, Jan. 2--Braving the crush of people at a state-subsidized store, Seraj Ahmed hopes he can buy enough flour to feed his family--all victims of the economic turmoil that has hit the already impoverished country following the slaying of Benazir Bhutto.
The stock market has plunged along with the local currency, while unrest has left hundreds of vehicles destroyed and banks burned. Damage to the railways alone is estimated at 12.3 billion rupees ($201 million, 138 million euros), AP wrote.
The latest unrest has only deepened the fears of people that life will not get better soon after the loss of the populist leader Bhutto, who despite her privileged background was seen as a woman of the people.
Driven by aid and investment since it became a key US ally in the war on terrorism after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Pakistan's economy has been growing and is targeted to grow by 7 percent for the fiscal year ending in mid-2008.
The Karachi Stock Exchange has hit record highs, with the market capitalization of shares trading there more than quadrupling since 2003.
Shares took a hit on the first day of trading Monday after Bhutto's death, but still ended the year up 40 percent even with all the turmoil in 2007 such as rising suicide attacks, a state of emergency imposed by President Pervez Musharraf and opposition party threats to boycott the parliament vote.
Already, the stock market fall appeared to be losing steam Tuesday and shares were not expected to suffer in the long term as investors are long accustomed to turbulence in Pakistan.
"If the major political parties are taking part and elections are held in the next few weeks, hopefully things will settle down and the economy will continue its trend," said Mohammed Sohail, director of equity trading at Pakistan's JS Global. But what keeps stock brokers happy is a world apart from the lives of the many of the 165 million people here, where one-third live below the poverty line earning less than $1 (0.69 euro) a day.
Despite the central bank's hopes of seeing the inflation rate drop from 7.9 percent in 2006, recent forecasts show it is likely to remain near that high. More critically, food prices rose by about 14 percent in 2007, building on double-digit increases for both previous years.

US Housing Still in Trouble
WASHINGTON, Jan. 2--More steps by Congress and the Bush administration are likely needed to stabilize the imploding US housing market, a senior White House official said on Tuesday, as more signs of distress appear.
Early last month, President George W. Bush unveiled a plan to help some homeowners avoid foreclosures as some 1.8 million mortgages with low starter interest rates are due to reset to sharply higher rates this year, Reuters wrote.
Ed Gillespie, counselor to Bush, pointed to efforts by the US Congress to overhaul the Federal Housing Administration program developed in 1934 amid the Great Depression and designed to make home ownership more affordable. Members of the House of Representatives and Senate have been trying to work out a compromise plan.
"There's more to be done we think on the housing front to address the concerns people have about the housing markets, including FHA reform and other reforms that the president has called for," Gillespie told reporters aboard Air Force One as Bush returned from a weeklong holiday at his Texas ranch. "We think there's an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on that."
One idea that has been under consideration by the administration and Congress is allowing mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy loans above the current ceiling of $417,000, mortgages known as jumbo loans, he said.
While Gillespie declined to provide more specifics, his comments revealed that the administration is closely watching the housing market as fears grow that it could send the overall US economy into a recession.
A report on Friday showed sales of new homes dropped 9 percent in November, to the lowest rate in more than 12 years, while another report on Monday showed the pace of existing home sales moved up slightly in November off a record low.
Gillespie also made it clear the administration would not bail out investors who made risky investments.
"You have to tread a fine line here of helping those who found themselves in a difficult situation and maybe didn't realize at the time the situation into which they were headed, and on the other hand removing any sense of moral hazard from the marketplace for those who are engaged in speculation," he said.

S. Korea Exports At $380b
SEOUL, South Korea, Jan. 2--South Korea's exports rose 14.2 percent from a year earlier to a record $371.8 billion in 2007, a government report said Wednesday.
It was the fifth straight year that exports have grown by double digits, the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy was quoted by AFP as saying.
The preliminary figures also showed that imports rose 15.3 percent to $356.7 billion on a customs-cleared basis, resulting in a trade surplus of 15.1 billion.
The trade surplus has stayed above $10 billion since 2002.
For December, exports rose 15.5 percent year-on-year to $33.2 billion while imports increased 24 percent to $34.1 billion.
The ministry forecasts that two-way trade will surpass $800 billion this year, with exports rising 11.6 percent on-year to $415 billion and imports gaining 12.7 percent to $402 billion.

India IT Market Grows by 24%
BANGALORE, India, Jan. 2--India's information technology market is poised to expand 24 percent in 2008 as it enters a new "growth trajectory," an industry report said Tuesday.
Revenue from the domestic IT and outsourcing market will touch 1.1 trillion rupees ($27.9 billion) this year, offsetting a slowdown in IT spending worldwide, according to the report by market research firm IDC, AFP reported.
"The industry is now onto a new growth trajectory," IDC India country manager Kapil Dev Singh said in a statement. But the firm warned that global IT spending would drop, with the US market of particular concern.
IDC forecast that worldwide IT market growth will slow to between 5.5 percent and six percent from 2007's estimated 6.9 percent.
India's booming economy, growing annually by nine percent, is spurring domestic IT spending as companies upgrade computer systems to stay competitive and consumers log onto the Internet.
India's software and services exports grew by 33 percent to $31.4 billion in the financial year to March 2007 while total revenue climbed by 31 percent to $40 billion.
The domestic market has largely been ignored by an industry that has boomed on work from Western firms trying to cut costs by taking advantage of India's English-speaking, computer-savvy graduates who work for lower salaries.
As the rupee strengthened 12 percent last year against the dollar, eroding revenue from the US market that accounts for two-thirds of software exports, IT companies such as Tata Consultancy, Infosys and Wipro are looking at other countries and the home market to diversify risks.
"The India domestic IT market will transform significantly," propelled by a greater need for more sophisticated services, the report said.

China Double-Digit
Growth Continuing
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Workers raise scaffolding near the construction site of the new China World Trade Center, a landmark of the Central Business District in Beijing, 30 December 2007.
SHANGHAI, China, Jan. 2--China's economy is likely to see its sixth consecutive year of double-digit growth in 2008, with inflation remaining near 10-year highs, state media said Wednesday, citing an influential think tank, AFP wrote.
The gross domestic product is expected to grow 10.8 percent in 2008, compared with estimated growth of 11.5 percent last year, the State Information Centre said in a report published in the Shanghai Securities News.
Consumer inflation is seen at 4.5 percent for 2008 from an estimated 4.7 percent in 2007, a decade high, said the center.
The center is a research body under the National Development and Reform Commission, the state economic planner, and is one of the most authoritative outlets for economic predictions in China.
The center reiterated Beijing's pledge to "prevent fast economic growth transforming into overheating" and to control inflation.
China took a series of measures to cool the economy in 2007, including six interest rate hikes.
The report said growth in the trade surplus would drop in 2008 due to "foreign protectionism", uncertainty about the US economy and the removal or reduction of tax incentives for exporters.
It predicted the trade surplus for this year would be around $328.4 billion, up 22.5 percent from an estimated $268 billion last year.
Growth in urban fixed asset investment, another driver of economic growth, is expected to slow to 24 percent from 26.3 percent, it said.

Poll Chaos Could
Halt Kenya Boom
NAIROBI, Kenya, Jan. 2--The bitter dispute over the Kenyan presidency could have long-lasting economic repercussions, observers warn, fearing that financial turmoil could quickly derail an, until now, booming economy.
Considered an investor-friendly haven of relative stability on its way to becoming an "African Tiger", Kenya has experienced its worst political unrest in 25 years since a controversial presidential election on Dec. 27, AFP wrote.
The crisis stemming from President Mwai Kibaki's disputed re-election affects everyone from the financial powerhouses to ordinary people who live in the slum of Kibera, where livelihoods are immediately under threat.
A few yards away, the Toi market was completely leveled by rioters who went on the rampage following the announcement of Kibaki's victory.
"We had 3,000 traders here, as well as 3,000 other people employed on the market, which if you include the families and the customers means that 200,000 people depended on this place," said Toi market traders association chairman Ezechiel Rema.
Millions of Kenyan shillings worth of basic food goods, shoes and clothes went up in smoke on Sunday night when marauding gangs of rioters set ablaze stalls reportedly owned by members of Kibaki's Kikuyu tribe.
Prices of basic goods have consequently more than doubled in the sprawling slum.
With a series of national holidays granted by the government for the election, the Christmas holidays and the ensuing crisis, the country has been at an economic standstill for a week.
Fuel shortages were beginning to cripple businesses not only in Kenya but in neighboring countries such as Uganda.
Many imports needed by the Great Lakes countries arrive in the port of Mombasa and pass through the whole of Kenya before reaching their destination.

Oil Above $96
Dollar Falls
SINGAPORE, Jan. 2--Oil prices rose Wednesday amid expectations a midweek report will show US crude stockpiles fell last week to post the seventh straight decline in inventories for the world's largest energy consumer, AP wrote.
The report is expected to show US crude stocks fell 1.8 million barrels, according to the average forecasts of analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires.
Light, sweet crude for February delivery gained 43 cents to $96.41 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by late afternoon in Singapore.
Oil prices fell 2 cents to settle at $95.98 a barrel Monday--the last trading day of 2007--ending the year 57 percent higher than where they began.
Crude futures surged in 2007 as demand from booming economies in Asia increased. More volatility is expected in the crude futures market this year, analysts said, adding it would be of little or no surprise if oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel.
"Fundamentally, I think there may be downward pressure on price, but if there's any supply outage or major turmoil or major problems in producing areas you could easily see prices spike over $100 a barrel," said Jeff Brown, managing director and chief economist at FACTS Global Energy in Singapore.
Meanwhile, the dollar fell in Asian trading Wednesday amid speculation of another move by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to bolster the sluggish US economy, dealers were quoted by AFP as
saying.
In afternoon trading, the dollar was lower at 111.60 yen from 111.70 yen in late New York trading hours Monday. The euro rose to $1.4654 from $1.4585.
Trading was closed Tuesday for New Year's Day and volumes remained thin because financial markets in Japan are closed until Friday.
Traders are betting the Fed will cut interest rates this month in a move to shore up the world's largest economy, dealers said.

Russo-Serb Gas Contract Expected
BELGRADE, Serbia, Jan. 2--Russia and Serbia may sign an inter-governmental agreement on cooperation in oil and gas sectors in Sofia, Bulgaria, on Jan. 18 by ratifying documents pertaining to the South Stream gas pipeline, Tanjug news agency quoted Serbian government sources as saying.
The agreement includes three major projects, Itar-Tass wrote.
RussiaÕs gas giant Gazprom gave a favorable assessment to a document entitled "The Platform for Negotiations Between the Governments of Serbia and the Russian Federation in the Oil and Gas Industry".
Gazprom sources also told Tanjug a group of authorized experts is due to arrive in Belgrade soon for drafting the text of the document in cooperation with Serbian officials.
GazpromÕs offer to the Serbian government envisions a purchase of 51 percent in the state company Naftna Industrija Srbije for 500 million euros, as well as investing the same amount of money in it from 2008 through 2012.
Also, the Russian gas giant plans to build South Stream pipeline in Serbian territory and complete construction of Banatski Dvor underground storage facility.
The South Stream gas pipeline project that will cross the territories of Bulgaria and Serbia will also pass the Republic of Srpska in Bosnia--something that the government in Belgrade insists on.
Government officials hope for a positive response to this initiative, Tanjug said.
South Stream is a new gas pipeline system which will link Russia to the European Union across the Black Sea.

iEconomyCol1
DM Popular
BERLIN--Six years after the introduction of the euro, a poll published Tuesday by the weekly news magazine Stern has found one in three Germans still hold deutschemarks for sentimental reasons in their homes. A small number of the 1,003 Germans sampled in mid-December admitted to keeping over 500 DM (255 euros).

Diesel Engines
DETROIT --US auto companies are turning to diesel engines as they deal with new fuel-efficiency standards mandated by Congress. General Motors, Ford and Chrysler all plan to offer diesel-powered light pickup trucks. Chrysler, with its Jeep Grand Cherokee, is now the only US company offering diesel engines outside of medium pickup trucks.

Unspecified Deal
KUALA LUMPUR--AT&T Inc, the biggest US phone company, wants to buy an unspecified stake in the mobile arm of state-controlled phone firm Telekom Malaysia. Telekom Malaysia is spinning off its mobile business into a separately listed firm, TM International.