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Countries rich in oil, natural gas and coal can expect growth, as companies offering specialized
equipment like deep-water oil rigs stand to benefit from full order books.
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The higher energy prices clouding some Asian economic projections contain a silver lining along the supply chain.
Crude-oil prices have risen near $100 a barrel recently. Despite a decline in the past two weeks, energy prices are widely forecast to approach that level again. Crude oil for January delivery was trading at $88.10 a barrel Friday in New York, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Countries rich in oil, natural gas and coal can expect growth, as companies offering specialized equipment like deep-water oil rigs stand to benefit from full order books.
Meanwhile, as high prices make previously marginal energy reserves commercially viable, those with technical expertise in oil-field services and pipeline construction will be sought after, especially in “frontier“ or newer areas.
Jobs represent another positive spinoff. Energy remains a labor-hungry industry, and Asia’s rapidly growing and educated population is in a position to provide workers. The oil-driven economic boom in the Persian Gulf will also fuel demand for semiskilled domestic and construction workers from Asia, analysts say.
“The direct impact from higher oil prices [on the Asian economy] has been positive,“ said Chua Hak Bin, director of Asian-Pacific economics and market analysis at Citigroup in Singapore.
In June 2006, when oil cost $70 a barrel, Mr. Chua predicted that a resources boom could fuel, rather than hurt, Asia’s economic growth.
“What is different now...is that inflation risks have increased for some Asian countries. Oil prices breaching $100 could, therefore, test the comfort zones of some Asian central banks,“ he said.
Production companies have reaped unexpectedly high earnings. In some cases, state coffers have been swollen by the imposition of windfall taxes, which are based on profit. China, for instance, expects windfall tax revenue from oil to total 60 billion yuan (US$8.11 billion) this year.
But record oil prices can hurt Asian governments, which subsidize fuel prices, Citigroup’s Mr. Chua said. Governments may have to bail out refining companies, adding to the fiscal burden.
Some analysts say a recession is already under way in the US, the world’s largest per-capita energy consumer. “It’s not a large negative. But the worry is that if growth in the US and the European Union slows, then it could be a problem“ for Asian economies, said Tobin Gorey, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.
Others say they see global red flags only if oil prices stay above $100 a barrel for six months or longer.
“Whether we get to $100 or not, there will be steady demand for oil-and-gas development and for raw materials,“ said Peter Beutel, president at US-based energy-trading advisory firm Cameron Hanover.
The rewards are already flowing in for net oil exporters Malaysia and Brunei; for suppliers of natural gas, particularly in its liquefied form, like Indonesia; and for major coal exporters like Australia, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
Among companies riding upstream oil growth are Singapore’s Keppel Offshore & Marine Ltd., a unit of Keppel Corp., and SembCorp Marine Ltd.
Their order books for sophisticated drilling rigs and related equipment are filled beyond this decade. The two companies command about 90% of the world’s rigs. Keppel’s order book alone is valued at more than S$13 billion (US$9 billion).
World-wide, there are more than 50 deep-water rigs under construction, with the bulk due for delivery in 2009 and 2010.
Competing for a slice of the lucrative capital-equipment and construction pie are firms in Japan, South Korea, whose shipbuilding sector is flourishing, and China.
Later this month, state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. is due to complete on schedule a 1,600-kilometer gas pipeline in India--its first in South Asia-- with which it hopes to cement its reputation and its overseas order book.
China’s exports of oil equipment like rigs, pipelines, and parts jumped 67% to US$3.25 billion in the first nine months of 2007, with 32% going to the U.S.
Firm oil prices will also boost the flow of Middle East money repatriated to the Philippines, Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh by oil workers and domestic staff.
Filipinos now send home around US$14 billion a year, twice what they sent five years ago, and as some of this is used to start businesses as well as support families, the economic knock-on impact is considerable.
The country’s gross domestic product grew 6.6% in the quarter ended September, as increased remittances fueled spending.
Oil demand in the Asian-Pacific region is forecast to be a robust 25.8 million barrels a day in 2008, nearly 30% of the global total, according to the International Energy Agency, a rise of 3.2% from the previous year and well above the expected 2.5% growth in 2007.