Developments now unfolding in Pakistan have deep political and social roots which can and should be analyzed within the age-old framework of power politics and the struggle between the political, military and religious players.
The country was founded in 1947 after the long but successful resistance of the people of India against British colonialism and the partition of that country.
From the outset, military forces vied for power in the new-born state.
Soon after Pakistan gained its independence, the Kashmir crisis emerged resulting in the first military conflict between the belligerent neighbors.
The war and pretence to defend the country and its sovereignty offered the Pakistan Army the opportunity to consolidate power and dominate the Muslim League--the party that had led the country to independence.
As a result Muslim League was sidelined.
In later years the generals launched a coup and took direct control of the country only to further expose the military and political elite to open confrontation.
For the past six decades since independence, Pakistan has been largely ruled by the generals. Whenever political parties or elected governments have taken the helm in Islamabad their rule was rather unstable and short-lived, thanks to coups and/or military pressure.
Strange as it may sound, not one elected government there has ever been able to serve its full five-year term.
But as time passed political parties and civil society have matured and become more dynamic. New branches of Muslim League have been established and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) was founded by Benazir Bhutto’s father, Zulfiqar Ali in the 1970s. Benazir chairs the powerful party and makes absolutely no secret about her claim to the highest echelons of power.
The volatile situation in Pakistan took a turn for the worst last week after President Pervez Musharraf declared a state of emergency.
In addition to the main parties that are competing for power with the generals, religious groups under the umbrella of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal coalition, led by Maulana Fazlur Rahman, are also preparing themselves for the power contest.
In the meantime, deteriorating security in Sarhad, Baluchestan regions and other tribal belts have been challenging the military’s might only to further aggravate the tense situation. This in itself has contributed to the influence of the Islamist faction.
It can be fairly said that more players are laying claim to power while pursuing different lines of thought but a common goalÐensuring and protecting sociopolitical stability in their land.
Now there is plenty of talk about sharing power between the political-religious groups on one side and the predominant military on the other.
Given the not very impressive performance of political parties for half a century, and the military’s strong and unified position, it is unlikely that the generals would be willing to transfer power to the politicians anytime soon.
Apart from the army and political factions, the judiciary has also entered the fray and is making its presence known on the already crowded and confused political landscape.
The ouster and house arrest of Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry has become part of the problem and brought protesting lawyers and judges on to the streets in a rare and potentially disturbing conflict with General Musharraf’s military establishment.
If the past is anything to go by, and in light of Pakistan’s political history, it can be argued that the power struggle among the military, political and religious groups can and will linger on in the foreseeable future.